The quantitative factors referred to in point (a) of Article 136(2) of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 shall be the short run and long run default rates associated with items assigned the same rating category, as set out in Articles 2 to 6.
The calculation of the default rates referred to in Article 1 for each rating category shall be performed based solely on items assigned the same rating category by the external credit assessment institution (ECAI) for which the mapping is being performed, where the items meet all of the following requirements:
they belong to the "corporate ratings" referred to in point (a) of Article 3 of Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/2, and they are assigned on an issuer basis;
they are assigned either of the following:
a solicited credit rating;
an unsolicited credit rating that meets the requirements of Article 138 of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013.
For the purpose of the short run default rate calculation, the number of items assigned the same rating category by the ECAI for which the mapping is being performed shall be deemed sufficiently numerous, where the items meet all of the following requirements:
they are sufficient with respect to the perceived risk profile of the rating category, considering as an indicator, the number of items representing the inverse of the long run default rate benchmark of the rating category, as referred to in point (a) of Article 14;
they are representative of the most recent pool of items assigned the same rating category.
For the purpose of the long run default rate calculation, the number of items assigned the same rating category by the ECAI for which the mapping is being performed shall be deemed sufficiently numerous where at minimum the most recent 10 short run default rates as referred to in paragraph 1 are available.
Where a sufficient number of credit ratings is available according to Article 3(1), the short run default rates referred to in Article 1 shall be calculated in the manner described in paragraphs 2 to 5.
The short run default rates of a rating category shall be calculated over a 3-year time horizon as a ratio where:
the denominator represents the number of items assigned the same rating category present at the beginning of the time horizon;
the numerator represents the number of items referred to in point (a) that have defaulted prior to the end of the time horizon.
Items withdrawn prior to the end of the time horizon and not defaulted shall only contribute to the denominator of the short run default rates referred to in point (a) of paragraph 2 with a weight equal to 50 %. Any item for which there is evidence that it has been withdrawn prior to the occurrence of a default shall be considered to be a defaulted item.
Items shall be considered to be defaulted items to be included in the numerator specified in point (b) of paragraph 2 where any of the following types of event has occurred:
a bankruptcy filing or legal receivership that will likely cause a miss or delay in future contractually required debt service payments;
a missed or delayed disbursement of a contractually required interest or principal payment, unless payments are made within a contractually allowed grace period;
a distressed exchange if the offer implies the investor will receive less value than the promise of the original securities;
the rated entity is under a significant form of regulatory supervision owing to its financial condition.
The short run default rates shall be calculated for each available pool of items assigned the same rating category on semi-annual periods, which are based on 1 January and 1 July of each year.
Where a sufficient number of credit ratings is available in accordance with Article 3, the long run default rate referred to in Article 1 shall be calculated according to paragraphs 2 to 4.
The long run default rate shall be calculated as the weighted average of at least the most recent 20 short run default rates calculated according to Article 4(1). If the available short run default rates span a longer period and they are relevant, the short run default rates for that longer period shall be used. Where less than 20 short run default rates calculated according to Article 4(1) are available the remaining short run default rates shall be estimated to span the 20 short run default rates.
For the purpose of producing the weighted average referred to in paragraph 2, the short run default rates calculated according to Article 4 shall include the most recent recessionary period. This recessionary period shall span a semester or more of the negative growth rates of the Gross Domestic Products in the main geographical areas of reference of the rated items.
For the purpose of producing the weighted average referred to in paragraph 2, the following shall apply:
the short run default rates calculated according to Article 4(1) shall be weighted based on the number of items specified in point (a) of Article 4(2);
the estimated short run default rates shall be weighted based on estimates of the number of items assigned the same rating category present at the beginning of the time horizon.
The weights shall ensure an adequate representation of recessionary and non-recessionary years in a full economic cycle.
Where a sufficient number of credit ratings as referred to in Article 3 is not available, the calculation of the long run default rate specified in Article 1 shall be performed according to both the following:
it shall be based on the estimate provided by the ECAI of the long run default rate associated with all items assigned the same rating category, pursuant to point (a) of Article 136(2) of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013;
the estimate referred to in point (a) shall be complemented with the number of defaulted and non-defaulted items assigned the rating category by the ECAI for which the mapping is being performed.
